RBI is scheduled to undertake its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy review, 2014-15 on Tuesday. File photo
With inflation under control, bankers believe that
macroeconomic indicators are conducive for a further rate cut of 0.25
per cent by RBI on Tuesday, even as some expect the central bank to
maintain a status quo.
The improving fiscal
situation, in the wake of a record Rs. 22,577 crore garnered from CIL
stake sale, and weakness in manufacturing sector are among pointers
towards a possible cut in rates, experts said.
However,
some bankers said the RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan may go for a status
quo and would like to wait for cues from the Budget presentation on
February 28 before undertaking any rate cut.
RBI,
which last month announced a surprise rate cut of 25 basis points after
maintaining a hawkish monetary stance for 20 months, is scheduled to
undertake its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy review, 2014-15 on
Tuesday.
According to bankers and economists, there
is room for further rate cut by RBI as retail and wholesale inflation
rates have remained benign.
The concerns on fiscal
deficit front have also eased, especially after the government last week
garnered a record Rs. 22,577 crore through disinvestment of 10 per cent
stake in Coal India Ltd.
While lowering the policy
repo rate to 7.75 per cent from 8 per cent, RBI had also said on January
15 that further rate cuts would depend on inflationary expectations and
improvement in the fiscal situation.
“My expectation
is that the RBI may go for status quo as no new data have come post
January 15. RBI Governor would like to wait till Budget before taking
any action on rate front,” Bank of Maharashtra Chairman and Managing
Director Sushil Muhnot told PTI.
While the
retail inflation slipped to 5 per cent in December, the Wholesale Price
Index (WPI) inflation remained near zero level (0.1 per cent).
The government’s fiscal situation is expected to improve further with more disinvestments.
So
far, it has realised over Rs. 24,000 crore with just two disinvestment
share sales, including SAIL’s Rs. 1,719 crore late last year.
It targets to raise a total of Rs. 43,425 crore from disinvestment in the current fiscal, ending next month.
Citing
favourable macroeconomic conditions, the government and the industry
have also been asking for further rate cuts to lower the cost of
capital, while concerns were expressed last month on Rajan maintaining a
highly hawkish monetary stance.
Even after last
month’s rate cut, many had said that RBI’s move was “too little and too
late”, while many bankers and experts have forecast overall lowering of
rates by up to one percentage points in the coming months.
Oriental
Bank of Commerce’s chief Animesh Chauhan said most macroeconomic
indicators favour a rate cut and he hopes that the RBI Governor would
consider a rate cut on February 3 by 25 basis points.
Last
month, Mr. Rajan had said that the further easing of rates would depend
on “data that confirm continuing disinflationary pressures”.
“Also
critical would be sustained high quality fiscal consolidation as well
as steps to overcome supply constraints and assure availability of key
inputs such as power, land, minerals and infrastructure,” Mr. Rajan had
said.
State-run IFCI’s Managing Director Malay
Mukherjee said, “There is a widespread expectation of rate cut but RBI
has all the data and will take a decision in its wisdom.”
PSU
banking behemoth SBI also said in a research report that RBI may go for
a “token cut” in interest rates in its upcoming policy review.
Bank
of Baroda Executive Director Rajan Dhawan said that if there is
credible fiscal consolidation, the rates will start coming down.
“With
inflation coming down, I believe all rates such as deposit and lending
rates will come down to more credible levels soon. I cannot second guess
RBI, as it is their prerogative, but I feel when you have stable, low
inflation, the policy rates have to come down,” Mr. Dhawan said.
“I
think the RBI is waiting and watching to see the impact of all the
measures that they and the government have taken...it will definitely
result into lower rates in the future,” he added.